Canada and the World

Henri p. Habib distinguished Speakers series on peace, Conflict and global politics In the 21st century

Concordia University
Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Canada and the world

Thank you, Dr. Stoett, for your kind introduction. Since I became a partner and strategic advisor to Fasken Martineau, certainly one of the best law firms in Canada, I have had the opportunity to speak about international affairs in many parts of our country. However, this is my first time speaking here at Concordia.

After spending 38 years of my life in Canada’s Foreign Service, I hope I can provide you with some insight on the subject of Canada and the world.

Dr. Stoett asked me to come here today in order to address you in a candid way. I will do my best. Dr. Stoett also asked me to reserve some time at the end of my speech, about 20 minutes or so, in order to answer questions. I am sure you will have questions. The role of Canada in our era of globalization is indeed a topic which is talked about more and more. And because of Canada’s present role in Afghanistan, I would not be surprised if it becomes one of the “hot” issues of the next federal election, whenever that election takes place. When I was deciding how to organize my presentation, i came to the conclusion that it would be best to divide it into two parts.

1. First, a bit of history,
2. And second, the major part, will be devoted to the main trends, the issues of the different continents of the world and what these issues mean for Canada.

But, first, a bit of history : I will not go as far back as 1867, when Canada was created. But I will go back to the two great wars of the last century. It is also quite a fitting topic, just two days after Memorial Day.
In the First World War, 1914-1918, hundreds of thousands of Canadians fought in Europe. We lost 60,000 soldiers. And our soldiers were considered amongst the very best in the world, on par with American and British soldiers.
In the Second World War, Canada had 1,000,000 men and women in arms. 10% of Canada’s population then went to war. 40,000 never came back.
I mention those two great wars to remind you that Canada has never been a pacifist country, a neutral country like Switzerland. Canada then and, of course, now has military alliances that it must respect : our commitment to Nato, and our military alliance with the U.S. through Norad.

It is important to remember this reality when we look at Canada’s role in Afghanistan today. I will come back to Afghanistan later on. A few words now about the so-called golden period of Canadian diplomacy, i.e. the period from 1945 to 1960 : I am sure that some of you remember the Suez crisis in 1956, which ultimately led Lester Pearson to win a Nobel peace prize. Pearson “invented” the concept of peace-keeping which prevented the conflict in the Middle East from exploding into a bigger crisis in 1956. But it was Canada’s overall position at the end of World War II that also allowed Pearson to play this role. Canada emerged from World War II as a strong country, from an economic, political and social point of view. Countries such as Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, and Italy were devastated. And new powerful countries such as china, India, and Brazil did not have the wealth and power to play the role in the world that they are playing now. Since that golden period, in the span of just 45 years or so, Canada has become remarkably successful :

1. In 1976, we became a member of the g-7, now the g-8, the group of the most economically strong countries of the world. Extraordinary achievement, especially when you realize that we have achieved that level of development while having only half the population of countries such as France, Britain, and Italy.

2. Canada has also had a number of diplomatic successes in recent years : A. The creation of the international criminal court, headed by Philippe kirsch, a Canadian. B. In formulating the Ottawa treaty against the use of land-mines. C. In fighting against the enrollment of children in the armed forces. D. In trying to prevent some humanitarian tragedies : general Romeo Dallaire in Rwanda in 1994. My own role in 1996, in allowing 1,000,000 refugees (Hutus essentially) to return to Rwanda, which is their country. E. In refusing to participate, in 2003, in the war against Iraq. Certainly, this was a very great moment in the history of Canadian diplomacy. We just said “no”.

But, some of you may say : all of these successes are in the past. What about the present and the future ? This leads me to the second part of my presentation.

Let us start with what is probably the most important geopolitical change on our planet since the end of the cold-war in 1991. That is the emergence of new powerful countries in Asia : china of course, and India, but also countries such as Singapore, and Vietnam (which has the second highest economic growth in Asia after china). Some experts even predict that Vietnam could become the seventh, or even the fifth, economy of the world in the next decade or so. This evening, as my time is limited, i will not discuss what is happening in all the important countries of Asia. I will spend a few minutes, however, on the extraordinary rise of china.

China Is china the country of the 21st century ? Only time will tell. However, one thing is certain : china is a huge economic powerhouse. It has a growth of 10% per year.
  It could become the most important economy of the world in 15 to 20 years.
  But china is also a country with huge problems. Let me mention a few : A. The co-existence of a communist political system with a free-market, hyperactive economy. Can it last forever ? B. The future of Taiwan, still one of the planet’s hot spots. China will never agree to an independant Taiwan. It would view a declaration of sovereignty as a casus belli. Taiwan is such an integral part of the country in the Chinese collective conscience that no government in Beijing could survive the loss of the island.
  China also has huge social problems : A. Massive movements of population from the countryside to major cities. B. Huge pollution : Beijing, shanghai, canton live in a kind of yellow cloud. Hundreds of thousands of people die every year of chronic respiratory diseases caused by pollution.
  Military power of china : China has 2,250,000 soldiers. China is also getting ready to launch an ambitious space program. But china will not be a military threat to the U.S. for a long time to come. They are way behind in this regard. China is also very important to Canada. People of Chinese origin constitute the principal group of immigrants to Canada, 15% of all immigrants. They are also the most important ethnic community in Canada representing 4% of Canada’s population. China has also become an important market for Canada and a purchaser of our natural resources. That is why, when it comes to human rights in China, Canada has to pass its message in a skilful and diplomatic way in order not to threaten its commercial interests. It is a question of balance.

Now a few words about Africa, where i lived from 1978 to 1981. The signal these days out of Ottawa is that the African continent is not a priority for Canada. But, in my view, it is the wrong signal to send. Here is why Africa remains important and deserves our attention :

1. The HIV crisis is still destroying countless lives in Africa. 2. There is a huge problem of refugees : in the Congo, Darfur. 3. Serious problems of religious extremism, especially in the horn of Africa. 4. Whether we should neglect Africa when the Chinese are doing business there in a massive way ? The Chinese are making all kinds of deals with many African governments, often exchanging precious natural resources, including oil, for technical cooperation. Canada’s role in Africa has been significant for a long time. Indeed, for more than 50 years, Canada has provided a considerable amount of aid to many African countries, including the building of roads, schools and medical clinics. This huge and long-term investment in Africa enables Canada to really make a difference in that part of the world. Those of you who follow African affairs will remember the nepad initiative announced by Canada at the g-8 summit held here in Kananaskis, Alberta in June 2002. This initiative has given Canada huge credibility in Africa. We should build on it, not abandon it.

A few words now about Europe I spent six years of my life in Europe. Canada’s relationship with Europe is strong : it is a historical, cultural, political and commercial relationship. Today five of our g-8 partners are European countries : Russia, Germany, France, Great Britain and Italy. However, our trade with Europe is limited to 10% of our total trade, and only 1% is with France. This could change one day. However, if we could sign a free trade agreement with Europe. This is still Canada’s main goal with respect to Europe. Unfortunately, due to European reluctance, this file is advancing at a snail’s pace.

A few words on the European Union conceived by Frenchman Jean Monnet, the European Union is one of the largest political projects in the history of mankind. The Europeans are devoting a great deal of time and energy to it.

This project is presently stalled until a new European constitution can be ratified by all member states. This is not going to be easy given the fear of massive immigration from poor eastern European countries and a refusal by some, including president Sarkozy of France, to accept the possibility of admitting turkey into the European Union.

However, the European project will continue to progress, in small steps. The creation of a commercial, social, environmental and more or less unified Europe, the abolition of borders between European countries, and the creation of a single currency, the euro, has been great successes for the European Union.

Now, before talking about Canada’s relationship with the U.S., I would like to spend some time on the “hottest” area of the world right now, the Middle East. Although it is not a continent, the Middle East is of such importance that it receives approximately 80% of media coverage devoted to international affairs. The Middle East is the cradle of Judaeo-Christian civilization and Islam. I spent six years of my life during which I were directly involved in this area of the world. Politics in this region are very complex and in-depth knowledge of history is needed for a good understanding of the current situation. There is presently a convergence of conflicts that are de-stabilizing the broader Middle East. Here are a few comments on some of these conflicts, whether violent or latent, in this region.

First, Iraq. The American decision to go to war against Iraq, in 2003, created deep divisions within the international community. Here is how the current situation in Iraq can be summarized :
  the American occupation is likely to continue for quite some time, certainly until the election and taking office of a new American president in January 2009.
  the war in Iraq has profoundly divided the American population and is part and parcel of the presidential race going on in the USA. The Americans simply do not know what to do to get out of there.
  the violence in the region persists.
  there is a civil war in Iraq right now. The Sunnis, who have led Iraq for over 1000 years, are having trouble accepting the fact that the Shiites are now running the show.
  turkey is now threatening to enter Iraq in order to neutralize the pkk – Kurdistan workers party - who are responsible for so many attacks in turkey, not only against the Turkish army but also against the Turkish civilian population. An invasion by turkey against the Kurds would destabilize even more the situation in Iraq, since the Kurds of northern Iraq have been left relatively untouched by the present civil war in Iraq. There is not much that Canada can do there except to provide a few hundred million dollars for the rebuilding of Iraq and to train Iraqi police officers and soldiers in Jordan.

Turning now to the neighbour of Iraq, Iran : In 1974, I traveled by car extensively throughout Iran. Another country in president bush’s axis of evil. Pakistan : in great turmoil now, following the imposition of a state of emergency by president Musharraf is the country that gets the most attention in the media these days. But Iran is not far behind. Iran is a dominant regional power with a population of 75,000,000 people. Iran is the fourth largest producer of petroleum in the world after Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S. Iran now produces 4,000,000 barrels a day. Now a very rich country, with an extraordinary history, culture, and educated population, Iran intends to play an important role in the region. Iran’s objective seems to be to create “a Shiite crescent” from Lebanon to Iran, including Syria, Iraq and a few countries of the gulf. If this were to materialize, this project would change the map of the entire region. But what catches the attention of the world these days is Iran’s construction of nuclear facilities for civilian use, according to them, and military purposes, according to others. Many U.N. sanctions have already been imposed on Iran without great success. Will there be an agreement between Iran, the international atomic energy agency and the three large countries which are currently in negotiations with it, namely Great Britain, France and Germany ? That remains to be seen, but for the moment there is a deadlock about Iran’s complying or not with the treaty of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Même si je ne suis pas dans le secret des dieux, even though I am not involved in this issue, here is what I think : 1. If Iran were to “weaponize” its nuclear energy, the pressure on the U.S. administration in particular to use military force in order to prevent that development would be enormous. In other words, before Iran gets the “bomb”, Iran could very well be bombed. Let us hope, though, that diplomacy will prevail. 2. If Iran were to get the “bomb”, it would be the “end” of the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. 3. Here are two hugely important objectives which clash with each other, especially for the U.S. : A. Energy security : do you risk taking some 4,000,000 barrels per day of the global oil market at a time when oil prices are closing in on $100.00 a barrel. Would that drive a wedge between the American people and their government ? B. Preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power. I do not know where this debate stands now in Washington and whether the balance “tilts” in favour of one or the other of these two key objectives. I suspect that the objective of preventing Iran from getting the bomb has gained ground in recent months. A few words about the Israeli Palestinian conflict This is a protracted conflict that won’t go away. The goal of the international community in this region is to have two countries living side by side : Israel and Palestine. The problem is space, borders, refugees and, especially, disagreement about the status of the holy city of Jerusalem. The Americans have called an international conference at the end of this month to see if progress could be made. Stay tuned !

What is Canada’s position on this ?
  Canada supports the search for a negotiated solution to this conflict. Canada has been chairing, since 1992, the working group on the very complex issue of refugees.
  a good discussion and a great challenge would be whether Canada can play a facilitating role between Israel and its Arab neighbours : a very interesting idea. I look forward to your questions on this issue.
  the persistence of this conflict is of great concern to Canada’s Jewish and Muslim communities. Afghanistan now The most important foreign policy issue facing Canada now : Afghanistan is still one of the poorest countries on the planet. The annual income is $148 U.S, life expectancy is 50 years, and one quarter of all children die before reaching the age of 5. I believe that, contrary to the decision to go to war in Iraq, the decision to go to war in Afghanistan was based on a just premise. There was no doubt as to the importance Of dethroning the Taliban regime that was hosting Osama bin laden and Al-quaida. It was normal, natural for Canada to participate in this war effort sanctioned by the U.N. and managed by Nato, two international organizations at the heart of Canada’s influence in the world. Canada cannot pretend to be taken seriously in the world if it refuses to participate in this mission. Canada’s credibility is at stake here. Considering that I am of the view that Canada’s role in Afghanistan is entirely just and compatible with our national interest, i also believe that there has to be better burden-sharing among the Nato members, especially when it comes to the most dangerous parts of that country, Kandahar in particular. It is difficult however to be optimistic about Afghanistan these days, given its flourishing trade of opium and proliferation of armed private groups helping the Taliban in their guerilla activities against the Karzai government. If Nato and its member states, including Canada, were to fail in Afghanistan, the ramifications would be serious. Therefore, I think we will remain in Afghanistan for quite some time to come.

Finally, I want to comment on the Canada-U.S. relationship, by far the most important relationship for Canada. I spent almost seven years of my life there and i continue to follow the developments there very closely. You all know why this relationship is so important : 80% of Canada’s world trade is with the U.S. Canada is also the most important supplier of energy to the U.S. for example, Canada provides the U.S. with close to 100% of its electricity imports, 94% of natural gas imports, 35% of its uranium imports and 17% of its oil imports. Canada shares a long border with the United States, close to 9,000 kilometres, and over 300,000 people cross that border every day. Our standard of living, quality of life and wealth as Canadians therefore depend, to a great extent, on our trade with the Americans and the degree of integration of our respective economies. Our relationship is now very good. After Canada’s decision not to go to war in Iraq and to not join the ballistic missile defence system and after the nasty softwood lumber dispute, which is now resolved, there is only one big issue to be resolved : what documents will be required to cross the Canada/ U.S.. border in the future ? As early as next year, all Canadians and Americans will need a passport to cross the border unless the two countries can agree before that time on a new biometric travel document such as an improved, more secure driver’s license. On the trade front, there are just a few trade disputes remaining, especially with respect to agriculture.

Still there are many challenges : Firstly, we must find the right balance between ensuring security at the border and promoting the circulation of people, capital and goods. This is the greatest challenge of the coming years. Not easy, since many Americans, even prominent politicians, still think that the terrorists of September 11th came from Canada. Furthermore, in terms of values, there has been divergence for a few years between Canadians and Americans in matters such as the role of religion in public affairs, the role of the U.N., the international criminal court, gay marriage, the decriminalization of marijuana, etc. In many respects, we were more like the Europeans than the Americans for a long time. Our model of society was similar to that of France, Spain and the Scandinavian countries more than the American model. This certainly had its good side socially but the tough reality is that the “American culture” is becoming ever increasingly more prevalent and influential in our everyday lives. This raises the question : what will Canadian American relations be like in the future ? When I look into my crystal ball, I see nothing dramatic, no “big bang” in the relationship, at least until 2009, when a new administration will come into power in Washington and until there is a majority government in Ottawa. Canada has historically been the initiator for the big changes that have happened in the relationship, i.e. the FTA of 1988 and NAFTA in 1991. But this kind of change usually happens only when there is a strong majority government in Ottawa. Therefore : no abolishing the border between the two countries, no customs union, no common currency, no security perimeter around the three North-America countries.

But here is what i see in my crystal ball :

1. Economic integration will continue. We crossed the “Rubicon” in 1988 with our free trade agreement with the United States. 2. Despite tension, the harmonization of our security policies will continue. 3. Despite a divergence of values, the Americanization of Canada, which is quite subtle and sometimes even unperceivable, will continue. This is also true for Mexico mutatis mutandis although here, in Quebec, language plays a role with respect to our identity, which is not the case for English Canada. In a nutshell, neither Americans nor Canadians seem to encourage an advanced, European-style integration for example. There is certainly no national consensus here in Canada on this issue. We Canadians must therefore continue to study which policies and procedures may be harmonized and which cannot be. For example, should we share information with the Americans about the identity of our passengers travelling on planes flying over U.S. territory ? Should we harmonize our immigration, refugees, and cultural policies ? Huge issues : if we harmonize too much, our identity risks being put into question. Before answering these questions, we must agree on what it means to be Canadian. What is a Canadian today ?

In conclusion, here are a few thoughts on what awaits you outside this amphitheatre :

My first thought :

The world which you are entering is no longer defined by the aftermath of the Second World War and the resulting bipolar division.

My second thought :

Human history is continuing, but at another level - pluralistic, varied, multicoloured and multipolar. A global civilization is developing, one that is both universal and multi-faceted, a mosaic of distinct identities and shared human values. But make no mistake : globalization is not a miracle solution. Some central issues remain regarding the distribution of wealth, the dissemination of information, arbitration and the law, solidarity and the role of the state. And other new and difficult issues will arise.

My third thought :

The revolution is no longer political, but computer-based. It is reinforcing our global interconnectedness. The internet is the web that has ensnared us all, regardless of distance, barriers and time differences.

These phenomena are taking place right before our very eyes. They bear watching closely, and require a new way of thinking because they will change the world.

Je m’adresse en conclusion aux jeunes dans la salle :

Where will all of this bring us ? That is the question that my generation is asking yours. Because it will be up to you to make decisions and determine what shape this new world will take. For the people of my generation, you bear hope and light.

So go on, the future is in your hands. Make history !

Merci ! Thank you !